美联储：或无视四季度预期内的冲击

Group 1: Inflation and Employment Trends - The PCE index rose by 0.3% in September, marking the largest increase in five months, which has led the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts[4] - The unemployment rate in October was 4.1%, which is in line with expectations and still considered low, indicating that the drop in non-farm payrolls is likely a temporary fluctuation[5] - There is an expectation of inflation rebound in Q4, but the extent of this rebound is anticipated to be limited due to weak core goods and the lagged effect of housing rents[7] Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The window for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may narrow next year due to uncertainties related to fiscal policy and tariffs, especially with the potential for tax cuts and increased tariffs under a Republican-controlled Congress[8] - The overall economic backdrop remains stable, with Q3 GDP growth at an annualized rate of 2.8%, supported mainly by consumer spending despite cautious private investment[9] - The market's pricing for a rate cut in December remains unchanged, reflecting the expectation of a limited inflation rebound[7] Group 3: Risk Factors - Key risk factors include geopolitical risks, unexpected increases in international oil prices, and a weaker-than-expected labor market[14]