2024年10月贸易数据点评：出口超预期增长，积压订单加快释放

Trade Overview - In the first ten months of 2024, China's total goods trade amounted to $506.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%[3] - Exports during this period reached $292.65 billion, growing by 5.1%, while imports totaled $214.12 billion, with a growth of 1.7%[3] - The trade surplus expanded to $78.53 billion, up from $67.83 billion in the same period of 2023[3] Monthly Performance - In October 2024, exports surged by 12.7% year-on-year, significantly up from a 2.3% decline in imports, leading to a trade surplus of $95.72 billion[3] - The October trade total was $52.24 billion, with exports at $30.91 billion and imports at $21.33 billion[3] Export Dynamics - Major export categories such as grain, steel, and aluminum saw significant increases, while exports of ships and automobiles declined[9] - High-tech product exports rose by 9.1% in October, reversing a previous decline of 1.15%[10] Import Trends - Import growth has slowed, particularly for agricultural products, with a notable decline in edible oils by 30.5%[13] - In October, the import growth rate for mechanical and high-tech products decreased to 2.4% and 8.8%, respectively[14] Trade Partner Analysis - Exports to ASEAN, EU, and the US increased, while imports from ASEAN decreased[6] - The trade value with ASEAN reached $797.63 billion, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, with exports to ASEAN growing by 10.8%[6] Economic Outlook - The report indicates potential pressures on exports due to upcoming tariff policies from the Trump administration, which may lead to preemptive export activities[3] - Domestic demand is expected to improve with the implementation of various policies, potentially boosting import growth in the near term[3]