基础化工行业2024年三季报总结：行业盈利阶段性承压，布局白马和新材料中长期机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the chemical industry, indicating a focus on long-term opportunities in blue-chip stocks and new materials despite short-term profitability pressures [2]. Core Insights - The chemical industry has experienced a decline in product prices since the beginning of 2023, leading to a bottoming-out phase. The average CCPI for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4626 points, a year-on-year decrease of 0.96% [2]. - Revenue for sample companies in the basic chemical industry reached 1800.635 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, down 1.64% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 7.77% to 1044.23 billion yuan [2]. - The report highlights that the chemical industry is currently in a low allocation phase, with active management public funds holding a market value proportion of 4.07% in basic chemicals, which is lower than the overall market value proportion of 4.61% [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Price Decline and Profitability - The CCPI index has shown a downward trend, indicating a bottoming-out phase for the chemical industry. The average CCPI for Q3 2024 was 4533 points, down 3.60% year-on-year and 4.28% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - In Q3 2024, the basic chemical industry reported revenues of 612.146 billion yuan, a decline of 3.77% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 15.08% [2]. 2. Subsector Performance - The report notes that certain subsectors, such as phosphate fertilizers and modified plastics, have shown strong performance both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2]. 3. Asset Growth and Construction Projects - The total fixed assets of the basic chemical industry reached 1379.374 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.08%. The total amount of ongoing construction projects increased by 4.60% year-on-year [2]. 4. Inventory and Cash Flow - The average inventory scale in Q3 2024 rose by 5.16% year-on-year to 397.586 billion yuan, while the cash inflow from operations decreased by 11.35% compared to the previous year [2]. 5. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: high ROE core assets, growth-oriented new materials, resilient sectors, and high-dividend stocks. Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and China Petroleum [2].