农业行业2024年三季报总结：周期景气回升，养殖盈利兑现

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Hold" for the agricultural industry, with specific recommendations for key companies: Buy for Haida Group, and Increase for Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, Guobao Pet, and Jinlongyu [1][2]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector's revenue growth has slowed in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching 924.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. However, the sector achieved a net profit of 27.482 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2][9]. - The pig price has entered an upward cycle, leading to significant improvements in breeding profitability. The number of breeding sows has been declining for over a year, resulting in reduced supply and a new upward trend in pig prices starting in Q2 2024 [2][10]. - The demand for yellow chicken is expected to rise due to low production capacity and seasonal demand improvements in the second half of the year [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Cycle and Breeding Profitability - The agricultural sector's revenue growth has slowed, but breeding profitability has improved significantly, with Q3 2024 showing a rapid increase in profits as pig prices recover [2][9]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased, leading to a reduction in pig supply and an upward trend in prices [2][10]. 2. Quarterly Analysis - In Q3 2024, the agricultural sector generated revenue of 343.833 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, but net profit increased significantly to 22.050 billion yuan [10]. - The breeding sector's revenue for Q3 was 129.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, with net profit showing a substantial turnaround [10]. 3. Sector Breakdown - Breeding: The pig price is on an upward trend, and the white chicken breeding is gradually recovering [13]. - Feed: The feed industry remains under pressure, but there are signs of improvement as breeding profitability increases [3][10]. - Animal Health: Benefiting from the recovery in breeding profitability, the animal health sector is seeing a sequential improvement in earnings [3][10]. - Pet Food: The pet food sector is experiencing significant growth in revenue and profitability, driven by exports and brand development [3][10]. - Other Sectors: There is considerable differentiation across other agricultural sectors [3][10]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - Focus on companies such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and leading feed companies like Haida Group, as well as vaccine companies and seed sector leaders [3][10].