Flat(601865) 华龙证券·2024-11-09 08:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the third quarter of 2024 was under pressure due to the continued low prices of photovoltaic glass, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 8.06% to 14.604 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.296 billion yuan, down 34.18% [1] - Since May 2024, the price of photovoltaic glass has remained low, impacting the company's performance significantly [1] - The company has a total production capacity of 23,000 tons/day, with over 90% of its production lines being large kilns, which provide a stable combustion environment and lower energy consumption [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.604 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.06% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.296 billion yuan, down 34.18% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 37.03% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 21.37%, with a net loss of 203 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 122.97% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 127.48% [1] - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of -15.53%, 18.23%, and 14.55% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with expected revenues of 18.180 billion yuan, 21.495 billion yuan, and 24.621 billion yuan [2] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 51.9, 39.0, and 28.9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is 55.0, indicating that the company is valued competitively within the industry [3] Production Capacity and Cost Structure - The company has successfully developed large kiln technology, which is expected to further reduce costs and strengthen its competitive advantage in the photovoltaic glass industry [1] - The company is advancing its domestic projects in Anhui and Nantong, as well as overseas projects, maintaining a robust production capacity [1]