Industrial Securities(601377) Haitong Securities·2024-11-09 09:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's proprietary trading performance has significantly improved, while brokerage business faces pressure. The wealth management business continues to empower advisory services, and the asset management scale of the parent company is steadily increasing. The reasonable value range for the stock is set between 7.32 and 7.98 CNY per share, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [4][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.81 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.32 billion CNY, down 16.5% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) was 0.14 CNY, with a return on equity (ROE) of 2.3%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. In the third quarter, the company reported operating revenue of 3.42 billion CNY, an increase of 78.3% year-on-year and 13.4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 380 million CNY, turning from loss to profit, but down 38.3% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. Business Segment Performance - The brokerage business faced challenges, with revenue of 1.31 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 26.0%, accounting for 19.8% of total operating revenue. The average daily trading volume in the market decreased by 7.8% year-on-year [5]. - The investment banking segment saw a significant decline in revenue, down 43.3% year-on-year to 440 million CNY. The equity underwriting scale dropped by 81.9%, while the bond underwriting scale increased by 5.7% [6]. - The asset management business reported revenue of 120 million CNY, an increase of 6.0% year-on-year, with total asset management scale reaching 86.2 billion CNY, up 2.2% year-on-year [6]. Investment Income - The proprietary trading segment experienced substantial growth, with investment income (including fair value changes) reaching 2.20 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 169.2%. In the third quarter alone, investment income was 1.03 billion CNY, compared to a loss of 420 million CNY in the same period last year [7]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of 0.20 CNY, 0.23 CNY, and 0.26 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The book value per share (BVPS) is projected to be 6.65 CNY, 6.79 CNY, and 6.95 CNY for the same years [7][11].