IMIC(000516) 华创证券·2024-11-09 13:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for International Medical (000516) with a target price of 7.5 RMB, compared to the current price of 5.95 RMB [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached 1.186 billion RMB, a 4.58% YoY increase, with a net loss of 39 million RMB [1] - Revenue growth is expected to continue in Q4 due to the peak season for medical services, with potential for profit improvement [1] - The company's profitability remains stable, with a Q3 gross margin of 8.58%, down 2.35 percentage points YoY [1] - Operating expenses improved, with sales expense ratio at 0.64% (-0.06pct), management expense ratio at 11.53% (-1.11pct), and financial expense ratio at 3.50% (-1.25pct) [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 5.106 billion, 5.841 billion, and 6.638 billion RMB, representing YoY growth of 10.6%, 14.4%, and 13.6% respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are -211 million, 5 million, and 173 million RMB [2] - The company's estimated fair value is 16.9 billion RMB based on DCF model [2] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 3.606 billion RMB, a 7.85% YoY increase, with a net loss of 212 million RMB [1] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 11.321 billion RMB in 2023 to 14.280 billion RMB in 2026 [6] - Operating cash flow is expected to improve from 684 million RMB in 2024 to 1.439 billion RMB in 2026 [6] Market Performance - The stock has a total market capitalization of 13.449 billion RMB and a circulating market capitalization of 13.222 billion RMB [4] - The stock price has fluctuated between 4.04 RMB and 9.33 RMB over the past 12 months [4] Industry Outlook - The medical services industry is expected to enter a peak season in Q4, potentially driving revenue growth and profit improvement [1] - The company's bed capacity is expected to continue breaking new highs, supporting revenue growth [1]