WANFENG AUTO WHEEL(002085) 华创证券·2024-11-10 00:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Wanfeng Auto (002085) [1] Core Views - Wanfeng Auto signed a technical cooperation memorandum with Volkswagen (Germany) to advance its eVTOL business, focusing on industrial design, aeronautical interior/exterior design, and human-machine interaction [1] - The company aims to independently develop and commercialize large-scale vertical mobility solutions with Volkswagen's support [1] - Wanfeng Auto is positioned as a core beneficiary in the low-altitude economy, with its Diamond aircraft brand expected to drive growth [1] - The report forecasts a significant market potential for eVTOL, with over 13,000 units potentially required if urban/intercity air mobility reaches 1% penetration [1] Market Potential - The general aviation market is expected to grow significantly, with the number of airports projected to increase from 449 in 2023 to 645 by 2027, representing a 9.5% CAGR [1] - Aircraft deliveries are expected to grow by 44-119% from 2023 to 2027, with potential additions of 1,454 to 3,929 aircraft [1] - The eVTOL market could see demand for 5,000-10,000 units by 2027 if one-third of 4A-level scenic spots adopt low-altitude tourism [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 16,207 million in 2023 to 20,253 million by 2026, with a 10.8% YoY growth in 2026 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 727 million in 2023 to 1,346 million by 2026, with a 21.4% YoY growth in 2026 [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.34 in 2023 to 0.63 by 2026 [2] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 50 in 2024 to 35 by 2026 [2] Business Drivers - Traditional flight training demand remains strong, with Boeing projecting a significant pilot shortage over the next 20 years [1] - The DA40 model dominates Wanfeng's current deliveries, accounting for 44% of total deliveries in 2023 [1] - The DA50 model shows promising growth, with deliveries increasing from 7 in 2021 to 19 in 2023 [1] Valuation - The company's current PE ratio of 50 for 2024 is below the average PE of 86 for the top 10 performers in the low-altitude economy sector [1] - Wanfeng Auto's valuation remains attractive compared to peers in the low-altitude economy space [1]