半导体行业10月份月报：供给充裕需求弱复苏，海外管制下自主可控长期可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Market Perform" rating to the semiconductor industry, indicating a neutral outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [2]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, with a slight recovery in demand expected in November. Prices for memory modules and chips have decreased by approximately 10% [3][5]. - The report highlights the performance of specific companies such as TSMC and Samsung, which have shown significant improvements in their earnings amidst a weak recovery in demand [7]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on leading companies in niche markets, particularly those benefiting from the recovery in AIOT and consumer electronics [8]. Summary by Sections Monthly Market Review - In October, the semiconductor sector saw a price increase of 19.36%, outperforming the broader market, which declined by 3.16% [4][18]. - The semiconductor industry's valuation metrics indicate a PE ratio of 73.18% and a PB ratio of 43.73%, reflecting high historical levels [4][28]. Supply and Demand Data Tracking - The semiconductor supply remains relatively abundant, with a slight increase in wafer fab utilization rates. However, demand is still subdued, leading to a continued decline in prices [5][6]. - Global semiconductor sales showed a year-on-year increase of 20.62% in August, indicating a gradual recovery in the market [5]. Downstream Demand Tracking and Forecast - The report notes a recovery in demand for smartphones, TWS earbuds, and AI servers, with global smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 increasing by 4.01% year-on-year [6]. - The report anticipates that the demand for AI servers will continue to grow at a rate exceeding 25% annually over the next three years, driven by increased investments in AI [6]. Fund Holdings Distribution - Public funds have a significant allocation in the semiconductor sector, with a total market value of 399.42 billion yuan, representing about 60% of the electronic sector's investments [4][30].