Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The macroeconomic landscape has shifted with significant events such as Trump's election victory, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and decisions from China's National People's Congress, leading to a period where the fundamental pricing power of various metals has increased [2][6] - Precious metals are under pressure due to the realization of previously anticipated gains from the "Trump trade" and rising 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which peaked around 4.5%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November confirmed a rate cut but expressed a more cautious stance on inflation, indicating potential adjustment pressures for precious metals [2][6] - Industrial metals are expected to benefit from a supportive domestic policy environment, with a projected 10 trillion yuan debt resolution plan and a more robust fiscal policy anticipated by 2025, which may bolster domestic demand despite entering a seasonal slowdown [2][6] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The report highlights a transition into a policy vacuum period, with the fundamental pricing power of metals gaining importance. The precious metals sector faces increased adjustment pressure, while industrial metals may see support from ongoing destocking despite seasonal demand declines [2][6] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW non-ferrous metals index rose by 6.62%, outperforming major indices such as the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index [11] - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with beneficiaries including Western Mining, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, Shandong Gold, and Shandong Jin International [2][6] 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1. Industrial Metals - As of November 8, 2024, copper prices on the SHFE were 77,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.76%. Aluminum prices were 21,690 yuan/ton, up 4.30% [12] - The report notes a decrease in copper and aluminum inventories, indicating a stronger destocking trend [13] 3.2. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell to 615.48 yuan/gram on the SHFE, down 2.11% for the week, while COMEX gold dropped to 2,691.70 USD/ounce [14] - Silver prices also declined, with SHFE silver at 7,760 yuan/kilogram, down 2.92% [14] 4. Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks key macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. CPI at 2.40% and PCE at 2.09%, alongside China's CPI and PPI figures [16][21]
有色及贵金属周报：财政“化债落地”，淡季回归供需
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-10 01:16