白酒行业2024年三季报总结报告：业绩降速渠道减压，底部调整静待拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the liquor industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is experiencing overall deceleration, with increasing internal differentiation. The performance in Q1-Q3 2024 shows that high-end liquor outpaces sub-high-end and real estate liquor in revenue growth, with respective growth rates of 13.46%, 8.15%, and 1.67% [3][9]. - High-end liquor continues to show robust growth, primarily driven by the strong brand resilience of Kweichow Moutai, which maintains double-digit growth in revenue and profit [3][14]. - The sub-high-end liquor segment is seeing increased differentiation, with Shanxi Fenjiu maintaining double-digit growth due to a stable domestic market, while other brands face challenges [3][19]. - The real estate liquor segment is slowing down, with varying performance among companies; Jiangsu Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu show better growth, while others face pressure [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance - The total production of liquor in 2024 reached 2.98 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 2.30%. However, production in September 2024 decreased by 9.90% year-on-year [9]. - For Q1-Q3 2024, listed liquor companies achieved revenue and net profit of 337.72 billion and 131.70 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.25% and 10.69% [9]. 2. Profitability - The profitability of high-end liquor leads the growth, with net profit growth rates of +12.84%, +7.96%, and +4.41% for high-end, sub-high-end, and real estate liquor, respectively [3][9]. - In Q3 2024, the net profit growth rates were 9.19% for high-end liquor, -2.04% for sub-high-end, and -29.60% for real estate liquor, indicating significant pressure on the latter two segments [3][9]. 3. Cash Flow - Cash flow for high-end liquor companies showed a year-on-year increase of 14.63%, while sub-high-end and real estate liquor saw increases of 11.62% and 1.74%, respectively [3][9]. - In Q3 2024, cash flow for high-end liquor increased by 3.82%, while sub-high-end and real estate liquor saw declines of 11.91% [3][9]. 4. Valuation - The absolute valuation of the liquor sector remains low, with the current PE ratio at 22.35 compared to a historical average of 31.51 since 2016 [3][9]. - Relative to the food and beverage sector, the liquor sector's average PE ratio is also below historical averages, indicating a potential valuation bottom [3][9]. 5. Industry Rating and Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on undervalued liquor stocks with strong performance certainty, recommending Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others [3][19].