银行事件点评：化债方案落地，财政政策预期积极

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook based on the overall industry fundamentals and performance relative to the CSI 300 index [1][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant debt reduction plan totaling 12 trillion yuan, which is expected to positively impact the economy and restore consumer confidence. The plan includes a 6 trillion yuan debt limit approved by the National People's Congress, with annual allocations of 2 trillion yuan from 2024 to 2026 [3][4]. - The debt reduction is anticipated to improve asset quality for banks and enhance their credit lending capacity, thereby reducing credit risks associated with local government debts [4]. - The Ministry of Finance is actively planning further fiscal policies for 2025, which may include expanding the issuance of special bonds and increasing transfer payments to local governments to support key areas such as technology innovation and public welfare [5][6]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The banking sector has shown a performance of -3.1% over the last month, 12.6% over three months, and 24.3% over the past year, compared to the CSI 300 index which recorded -3.6%, 22.8%, and 13.7% respectively [1]. Debt Reduction Plan - The debt reduction plan includes: 1. A total of 12 trillion yuan, with 6 trillion yuan in debt limits approved for 2024-2026. 2. 4 trillion yuan allocated from new local government special bonds from 2024 to 2028. 3. 2 trillion yuan of hidden debts related to shantytown renovations to be repaid as per original contracts [3][4]. Future Fiscal Policies - The report anticipates that fiscal policies in 2025 will focus on: 1. Utilizing available deficit space. 2. Expanding the scale of special bond issuance. 3. Supporting major national strategies and enhancing local government financial capabilities [5][6]. Recommended Banks - The report suggests focusing on specific banks, including Postal Savings Bank, CITIC Bank, Industrial Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Qilu Bank, as potential investment opportunities [6].