钴锂金属周报：“淡季预期”修复，锂价中枢上移

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The price of lithium carbonate has shown signs of recovery, supported by strong demand in November, which is typically a low season. The expectation for December demand has also increased, suggesting a stable price range until late November [2][3]. - The lithium sector is experiencing a mixed market sentiment, with a slight increase in lithium carbonate prices but limited acceptance of high prices from downstream buyers. The overall market remains cautious, with a focus on essential purchases [10][11]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand, with companies in the cobalt sector extending their reach into the electric new energy manufacturing sector to enhance competitive barriers [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium and cobalt industry maintains an "Overweight" rating, with the lithium segment seeing a slight increase in prices. The weekly price for lithium carbonate in Wuxi rose by 2.01% to 76,000 CNY/ton, while the price in the Guangxi market fell by 0.13% to 76,400 CNY/ton [3][10]. - The price of lithium concentrate is reported at 771 USD/ton, reflecting a 24 USD increase from the previous week, indicating a tight supply situation [3][10]. 2. Key Data - Lithium carbonate weekly production increased by 3.00%, while inventory decreased by 2.93%, continuing the trend of destocking [10][29]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported between 74,500 and 76,300 CNY/ton, with an average increase of 2.10% from the previous week [10][11]. 3. Monthly Production of New Energy Materials - The report highlights that the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 19% month-on-month and 97% year-on-year, while the production of ternary materials decreased by 5% month-on-month but increased by 3% year-on-year [11][18]. 4. Import and Export of Lithium Salts - In September, lithium carbonate imports decreased by 8% month-on-month but increased by 19% year-on-year, while hydroxide exports rose by 22% month-on-month and 15% year-on-year [19][22]. 5. Profit Forecast for Listed Companies - The report provides profit forecasts for several companies, including Yongxing Materials and Ganfeng Lithium, both rated as "Overweight" with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth [55].