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宏观周报:财政政策持续加力,美国大选靴子落地
Southwest Securities·2024-11-10 02:29

Domestic Developments - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasized the need to stabilize expectations and promote development, aiming for a 5% economic growth target for 2024, with Q1-Q3 growth rates of 5.3%, 4.7%, and 4.6% respectively[6] - The National People's Congress reviewed a proposal to increase local government debt limits to replace hidden debts, with an expected scale of 5-10 trillion yuan to accelerate the clearance of hidden debts by 2028[8] - Premier Li Qiang proposed three suggestions at the China International Import Expo to attract foreign investment, highlighting the expansion of market access in telecommunications, education, culture, and healthcare sectors[10] International Developments - Trump won the U.S. presidential election, securing 277 electoral votes, which may lead to significant policy changes, including aggressive tariff policies that could impact exports[18] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5% to 4.75%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, with concerns that Trump's policies may lead to increased inflation and affect future rate decisions[20] High-frequency Data Insights - Brent crude oil prices increased by 4.37% week-on-week, while copper and iron ore prices rose by 0.53% and 0.24% respectively[21] - Real estate sales saw a significant decline of 40.19% week-on-week, while the average daily retail sales in the passenger car market grew by 51% year-on-year in the last week of October[21]