9月煤炭进口量环比下降，旺季来临煤价有望企稳

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [2][9]. - The supply side shows an increase in coal mine capacity utilization, with sample thermal coal mines at 97.4% (+1.4 percentage points) and coking coal mines at 90.14% (+1.9 percentage points) [2][9]. - Demand from inland provinces has increased, with daily coal consumption rising by 15.60 thousand tons (+4.88%), while coastal provinces saw a decrease of 2.50 thousand tons (-1.38%) [2][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in coal imports, with October 2024 imports at 46.248 million tons, a 28.5% increase year-on-year [2][9]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will stabilize in a narrow range, with coking coal prices expected to have upward momentum [2][9]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Tracking - The report indicates that as temperatures drop, heating demand in northern regions will rise, leading to increased daily consumption at power plants [2][9]. - The report notes that the current high inventory levels at downstream power plants may lead to increased winter coal procurement needs in regions like Northeast and Inner Mongolia [2][9]. Price Tracking - As of November 8, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 848 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week [2][12]. - The report also mentions that the price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1700 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week-on-week [2][12]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividend attributes, making it a robust investment opportunity [3][10]. - Key companies to focus on include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, China Shenhua Energy, and other major coal enterprises that are expected to benefit from policy-driven asset revaluation [3][10].