农林牧渔：周期兑现，业绩大增

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights a significant recovery in the agricultural sector, with a notable increase in profitability driven by the pig cycle and improved breeding profits, despite ongoing pressures in the seed and post-cycle industries [2][11] - The overall revenue of the agricultural sector decreased by 3.70% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, but the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 32.042 billion yuan, a substantial turnaround from a loss of 8.268 billion yuan in the same period last year [11][12] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The agricultural sector's cumulative revenue decreased by 3.70% year-on-year, with quarterly revenue growth rates of -4.79%, -4.13%, and -2.41%, indicating a slowing decline [11] - The sector achieved a net profit of 32.042 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 8.268 billion yuan in the previous year, with quarterly profits of -1.475 billion yuan, 10.981 billion yuan, and 22.536 billion yuan [11][12] - The return on equity (ROE) for the sector was 5.99%, ending five consecutive quarters of negative returns [15] Pig Industry - The pig farming sector saw a significant recovery, with a net profit of 19.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a turnaround from a loss of 18 billion yuan in the previous year [22] - The average price of pigs increased to 19.45 yuan/kg in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 21.57%, while the average profit per self-bred pig reached 500 yuan [17][22] - The industry is cautious about expansion, with production assets and construction projects declining by 4.88% and 28.60% year-on-year, respectively [28] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector's revenue decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with profits of 2.282 billion yuan, primarily driven by the yellow-feathered chicken segment [31][33] - The white-feathered chicken industry faced significant pressure, with a revenue decline of 7.69% and a net profit drop of 46.19% [33][34] Animal Health Industry - The animal health sector experienced a revenue decline of 1.24% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 52.53% [4][37] - The industry faces intense competition and pricing pressures, leading to a gradual decline in gross margins [4][37] Feed Industry - The feed sector's revenue decreased by 3.54% year-on-year, but profits increased by 63.10% to 3.601 billion yuan, mainly due to significant profits from Haida Group's pig farming hedging [43] - The gross margin improved slightly, reflecting a decrease in raw material costs [43] Seed Industry - The seed industry faced severe losses, with a net profit loss of 469 million yuan, worsening by 39.63% year-on-year [46][47] - The sector's revenue decreased by 0.39%, with significant quarterly declines [46][47]