11月美联储议息会议点评：降息节奏放缓

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50-4.75%, a reduction less aggressive than the previous 50 basis points in September[2] - The statement indicated a shift in language regarding the labor market from "employment growth slowed" to "labor market conditions generally eased," suggesting a more cautious outlook[2] - Inflation is making progress towards the Fed's 2% target, but the previous confidence in this return has been removed from the statement, reflecting current uncertainties[2] Economic Outlook - Powell emphasized that the election outcome will not impact the Fed's policy decisions in the short term, and any tax cuts or rising deficits will be considered once legislation is passed[2] - The job market is cooling but remains in good condition; Powell expressed concern only if long-term inflation expectations rise, which has not yet been observed[2] - Recent economic data, including CPI and retail sales, exceeded expectations, contributing to a rise in 10-year Treasury yields[2] Future Policy Direction - The Fed is expected to continue lowering rates in December, maintaining a 25 basis point reduction as long as the job market does not significantly weaken[3] - As rates approach neutral levels, the Fed may slow the pace of rate cuts and consider pausing at certain meetings[3] - Powell reiterated that each meeting's decisions will be data-driven, with potential for accelerated action if the labor market deteriorates[2] Risk Factors - Key risks include a significant unexpected weakening of the U.S. job market and faster-than-expected rate cuts by the Fed[4]