宏观研究：“抢出口”与价格竞争优势支撑出口韧性

Export Performance - In October, China's exports grew by 12.7% year-on-year, exceeding the previous month's growth by 10.3 percentage points and surpassing the consensus forecast of 5.14% by 7.56 percentage points[7] - The cumulative export growth from January to October was 5.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value[10] - The export growth in October was supported by a competitive pricing advantage against high inflation levels in countries like Japan, Brazil, and Russia[7] Import Trends - October's import growth was -2.3% year-on-year, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month and below the consensus expectation of 0.02%[22] - Cumulative import growth from January to October was 2.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[22] Future Outlook - The export growth rate for November is expected to be around 12%[2] - Factors supporting this outlook include the upcoming Christmas season, which may lead to increased pre-purchasing by companies in Europe and the U.S.[25] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected escalations in global trade tensions, slower-than-expected economic recovery in the Eurozone, and increasing geopolitical conflicts abroad[3]