银行24Q3货币政策报告点评：淡化数量目标

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The People's Bank of China has shifted its monetary policy focus from quantity targets to price control, emphasizing the importance of interest rate adjustments and market-driven pricing [1][4] - The M1 monetary supply measure may undergo expansion, incorporating personal demand deposits and non-bank payment institution reserves, which could significantly alter the growth rate of M1 [2] - The width of the interest rate corridor may be narrowed, leading to more frequent self-regulatory pricing adjustments for deposits and loans, enhancing the transmission of policy rates [3] - The monetary policy framework is transitioning towards price-based control, with expectations for supportive policies such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to maintain reasonable liquidity [4] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Adjustments - The report highlights a shift in the monetary policy framework towards price-based control due to the challenges in managing total monetary indicators like M2, which can be distorted by market factors [4] - The central bank aims to balance the relationship between credit and bond markets while promoting reasonable price recovery [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on market-oriented small and medium-sized banks, particularly those benefiting from real estate and local government financing risk resolution, such as Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank [4] - It also recommends banks that may benefit from declining risk-free rates, including Jiangsu Bank and Shanghai Bank, and emphasizes undervalued leading banks like Changshu Bank [4]