海外流动性与权益市场跟踪：美股前期核心约束打开

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. presidential election concluded with Trump's victory, leading to a favorable environment for U.S. equities, particularly benefiting from tax reduction policies[3] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in November, aligning with market expectations, which has positively impacted market sentiment[6] - The S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq indices showed significant gains, reflecting a recovery in risk assets due to improved market emotions[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.42% before retreating to 4.30% following the Fed's rate cut announcement[3] - The initial consumer confidence index for November exceeded market expectations, reaching its highest level since April[6] - The annualized growth rate of non-farm labor costs in Q3 was reported at 1.9%, significantly above expectations, indicating a robust labor market[7] Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Fed stand at 64.6%, with a 35.4% probability of no cut[28] - The Fed's future rate path remains uncertain, with the potential for further narrowing of rate cuts due to inflationary pressures from Trump's policies[7] - The market anticipates the federal funds terminal rate to decline to the range of 3.75%-4.0% by 2025[3] Group 4: Global Market Trends - Global equity markets generally rose, with A-shares and U.S. stocks leading the gains, while commodities like aluminum and crude oil saw significant price increases[9] - The European Central Bank and other global central banks followed the Fed's lead in cutting rates, reflecting a synchronized monetary policy response[8] - The Japanese yen continues to depreciate, with market expectations for a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan increasing[12]