【宏观快评】人大常委会新闻发布会点评：好饭不怕晚，空间在路上

Group 1: Key Facts - The total amount of hidden debt to be digested by local governments before 2028 is reduced by 12 trillion yuan, from 14.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 to 2.3 trillion yuan[12] - An increase of 10 trillion yuan in debt resources from 2024 to 2028, including a one-time increase in local debt limits of 6 trillion yuan, with 2 trillion yuan added each year from 2024 to 2026[12] - Continuous arrangement of 4 trillion yuan in special bonds, with 800 billion yuan allocated annually for five years starting in 2024[12] Group 2: Market Implications - No issuance of national bonds or adjustment of the deficit ratio is expected for the remainder of the year, with the probability of such actions being negligible[13] - The focus of debt reduction has shifted from high-debt provinces to major provinces, which contribute 45% of the national GDP and over half of land sales revenue[17] - The capital market is likely to see a stable increase in risk appetite due to the disciplined approach to debt management, contrasting with the previous period of "debt reduction while increasing" from 2015 to 2018[17] Group 3: Future Fiscal Policies - Special national bonds may be issued to supplement the capital of state-owned banks, potentially amounting to 1 trillion yuan[25] - The deficit ratio may be increased to 3.5% or higher next year, enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments[27] - Over the next five years, special bonds for land reserves may total 4 trillion yuan or more, supporting local governments and real estate[28]