2024年11月8日人大常委会财政新闻发布会解读：从万亿化债看25年财政展望

Group 1: Debt Replacement Strategy - The core objective of the trillion-yuan debt replacement is to create fiscal space and enhance local government engagement, facilitating risk prevention and stable growth[6] - The debt replacement plan includes 6 trillion yuan for debt replacement, 4 trillion yuan in special bonds, and 2 trillion yuan in maturing debts, totaling a scale higher than previous rounds[8] - The debt replacement will be executed over three years, with 2 trillion yuan allocated annually from 2024 to 2026, and an additional 800 billion yuan from new local government special bonds each year for five years[8] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to better balance "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks" by 2025, with a projected deficit scale reaching 4.5 trillion yuan[12][19] - Broad fiscal spending is anticipated to accelerate, with special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds expected to increase, supporting government investment and consumption[12] - The government aims to enhance support for new productive forces through tax reductions and expanded investment in special bonds, focusing on high-tech and high-quality sectors[17] Group 3: Risk Management - The large-scale debt replacement plan is designed to alleviate local government debt burdens and improve fiscal space, thus enhancing both central and local government engagement[21] - Attention is required on real estate market stabilization and financial risks, with measures to support local governments and mitigate potential financial crises[23] - The issuance of special treasury bonds is expected to supplement the core tier one capital of state-owned banks, while special bonds will continue to support small and medium enterprises[23]