10月出口数据传递的信号：四大优势支持出口，大选后关注“抢出口”

Export Performance - In October 2024, China's export growth rebounded significantly to 11.2% in RMB terms, up from 1.6% in the previous month, indicating a strong recovery despite short-term disruptions like typhoons[1] - From January to October 2024, total exports reached 20.8 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, an increase from 6.2% in the first nine months[1] - Exports to major trading partners showed varied performance, with ASEAN, EU, US, and South Korea experiencing year-on-year growth rates of 12.5%, 3.5%, 4.9%, and -0.8% respectively, highlighting resilience in US exports compared to Europe[1] Advantages Supporting Exports - Four key advantages are identified to support China's exports: cost-effectiveness of export products, industrial advantages in "new three items" (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products), overseas corporate layouts, and supply advantages amid global trade frictions[1] - The cost-effectiveness of Chinese products is increasingly significant as US and China price trends diverge, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards more affordable options[1] - Since 2018, China's "new three items" have driven export growth in chemical products and machinery, contributing to a robust export scale[1] Future Outlook - The anticipated implementation of tariffs by the new US administration is expected to occur no earlier than Q2 2025, creating a "window" for increased exports in the interim[1] - China's overseas direct investment has surged from 1.98 trillion to 2.96 trillion USD since the trade war began, indicating a strategic shift in supply chain management towards ASEAN and Mexico[1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, may enhance China's supply capabilities, providing a competitive edge in global markets[1] Import Trends - In October 2024, China's import growth declined by 3.7% in RMB terms, continuing a downward trend from -0.5% in September, with total imports from January to October growing by 3.2%[3] - The decline in imports is primarily attributed to domestic demand factors, but a recovery is expected as expansionary policies are implemented[3] - The trade surplus in October 2024 reached 95.72 billion USD, a significant increase from 81.71 billion USD in September, indicating strong export performance relative to imports[4]