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特朗普上台后美国新能源行业变化分析:特朗普上任,美国新能源韧性仍在
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-10 06:30

Investment Rating - The report rates the emerging energy industry as "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The resilience of the U.S. renewable energy sector remains strong following Trump's election, with significant growth expected in solar and energy storage [3][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading lithium battery companies and Tesla's supply chain, as well as companies benefiting from global energy storage demand [3][10] Summary by Sections 1. U.S. Solar Demand Assessment - The U.S. solar market is experiencing robust growth, with installed capacity reaching 32.4 GW in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 59.6% [6] - The share of new energy installations from solar has risen to 67% in the first half of 2024, supported by increasing PPA prices and declining system costs [6][8] 2. Energy Storage - Demand for large-scale energy storage remains resilient, with Tesla positioned as a key beneficiary [10][14] - The potential cancellation of the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) poses some risk to residential storage but is expected to have limited impact on large-scale storage [12][14] 3. Power Equipment - There is still room for growth in power grid demand, particularly for transformers, which have a significant export share to North America [16][18] - The North American market shows a strong demand for transformers, indicating a supply-demand gap [18] 4. Lithium Batteries - The report highlights the favorable conditions for Tesla's supply chain, with a focus on the growth of the U.S. electric vehicle market [20][22] - The U.S. electric vehicle market saw a slow growth rate during Trump's previous term, but the current landscape suggests a potential for increased sales and market penetration [20][21] 5. IRA and Regulatory Environment - The IRA has provided substantial tax incentives for solar and storage installations, which are crucial for market growth [9][24] - Potential adjustments to emission standards and the IRA could impact the electric vehicle supply chain and overall market dynamics [24][25][26] 6. Market Opportunities - The report recommends actively monitoring leading companies in lithium batteries, Tesla's supply chain, and major players in energy storage and solar sectors [3][10] - Companies such as CATL, BYD, and others are highlighted as key players in the lithium battery market [3][28]