食品饮料行业2025年投资策略：否极泰来

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the liquor sector, particularly for baijiu, indicating a potential rebound due to policy support and market sentiment recovery [1]. Core Insights - The liquor sector has experienced nearly four years of adjustment since 2021, with the CITIC Baijiu Index's dynamic P/E ratio falling below the lowest level during the previous adjustment in 2018. Since September 24, the baijiu sector has seen a significant rebound due to the opening of policy space [1][11]. - The industry is facing a trend of stock and shrinking competition, with intensified differentiated competition. Demand feedback has been tepid since 2024, leading companies to actively adjust market strategies [1][15]. - The report suggests that while short-term recovery is expected due to policy support, long-term growth may be tempered by actual demand and channel feedback, with revenue and profit growth potentially declining [1][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Baijiu: Policy Space Opens, Potential for Bottoming Rebound - The baijiu sector has undergone four years of adjustment, with valuations nearing the bottom of the last cycle [1.1.1]. - Policy changes have boosted market confidence, leading to a significant rebound in the sector [1.1.2]. - Historical analysis shows that market performance often leads fundamental recovery, with policy changes typically triggering stock price rebounds [1.1.3]. - The industry is experiencing a continued trend of stock and shrinking competition, with a 5.1% year-on-year decline in total production in 2023 [1.2]. - Demand has been relatively weak in 2024, prompting companies to adjust their strategies to alleviate pressure [1.3]. - There is an expectation of a downward adjustment in profit forecasts, with hopes for a recovery in the fundamental outlook as policies are implemented [1.4]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector - The beer sector is expected to see a recovery in consumption scenarios in 2025, with a focus on high-end product growth [2.2]. - The seasoning products sector is facing pressure in the B-end restaurant channels, but there are structural opportunities within the sector [2.3]. - The snack food sector maintains a high level of prosperity, with resilient companies expected to perform well [2.5]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to see improvements in supply-demand relationships, with a focus on stable performance and dividend expectations from leading companies [2.6].