Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [8] Core Views - Domestic traditional LED demand is under pressure, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts [5] - MLED sector is expanding rapidly, with 15 Mini/Micro LED projects signed nationwide this year, totaling an investment of 68.895 billion yuan [6] - The company's MLED progress is smooth, expected to lead the MLED era [8] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 808 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.76%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 136 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.56% [5] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 54.99%, a year-on-year increase of 0.91 percentage points [6] - Q3 2024 operating cash flow was -102 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 150.29%, mainly due to inventory and accounts receivable impacts [7] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are 3.588 billion yuan, 4.356 billion yuan, and 5.326 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 21%, and 22% respectively [8] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company forecasts are 680 million yuan, 916 million yuan, and 1.319 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 35%, and 44% respectively [8] Market and Industry Analysis - Domestic traditional LED market demand is flat, reflecting changes in terminal psychology [5] - The company's MLED sector is benefiting from the rapid increase in COB penetration rate, with innovative products like Nova intelligent equipment expected to rapidly expand [6] - The company's gross margin remains stable, driven by overseas expansion and new product launches [6] Financial Metrics - Q3 2024 sales/management/R&D expense ratios were 13.80%, 5.83%, and 17.22%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 1.32, 1.45, and 2.87 percentage points [6] - As of Q3 2024, the company's inventory was 1.481 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.18%, and accounts receivable were 807 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.50% [7] Valuation - 2024-2026 PE ratios are forecasted at 27x, 20x, and 14x, respectively [8]
诺瓦星云：国内需求平淡，MLED持续成长