家居Q3综述：经营压力放大，以旧换新驱动需求改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the home goods industry, indicating potential for recovery driven by demand improvement through trade-in programs [6]. Core Insights - The home goods industry is experiencing significant operational pressure due to declining real estate sales and consumer purchasing willingness, leading to a widespread decline in revenue among leading companies [10]. - The shift from new home demand to existing home renovations is impacting customer traffic, with online and integrated solutions becoming critical for market competition [10]. - The report highlights that the number of loss-making companies in the home goods sector reached 28.2% by September 2024, an increase of 5.0 percentage points since the beginning of the year [10]. Summary by Sections Revenue & Profit - The home goods sector is facing intensified pressure from real estate and consumer spending, with a cumulative year-on-year decline in residential sales area of 11.8% and a 29.0% drop in completed residential area [1]. - Major home goods companies are experiencing double-digit revenue declines, with fixed cost absorption insufficient to counteract the impact of intensified price competition [1][10]. - The transition to a stock market era is leading to a significant drop in offline store traffic, while online and integrated solutions are becoming essential for maintaining market share [1]. Sales Performance - In Q3 2024, leading home goods companies faced further pressure, with revenue declines exceeding 10% across various segments [2]. - Companies like Gujia and Zhijia reported revenue declines of 6.9% and 10.1%, respectively, while others like Oppein and Sophia saw declines of over 21% [2][11]. - The report notes that external sales are performing better than domestic sales, with some companies successfully expanding their overseas markets [2]. Category Performance - The report indicates that the cabinet and wardrobe segments are experiencing significant declines, with the first collective year-on-year drop in wooden doors noted [3]. - Sofas and mattresses are also under pressure, with companies like Mousse and Xilinmen seeing revenue declines in these categories [3]. - Leading companies are focusing on tapping into existing market demand and expanding their product categories to include doors, bathrooms, and wall space [3]. Channel Performance - Both retail and engineering channels are facing increased operational pressure, with significant revenue declines reported across major companies [4]. - Retail channels for companies like Oppein and Zhijia saw declines of 20.6% and 16.0%, respectively, continuing the downward trend from Q2 [4]. - The report highlights a shift in customer structure and an increase in pressure across engineering channels, with several companies reporting negative growth [4]. Profitability - The overall gross margin is under pressure due to intensified price competition and declining scale effects, with leading companies focusing on cost reduction and operational efficiency [4]. - Oppein's gross margin improved by 2.8 percentage points to 40.4% in Q3 2024, while Mousse benefited from business structure optimization, achieving a gross margin of 36.5% [4]. - Companies like Zhijia and Gujia are experiencing more significant declines in gross margin due to increased market concessions [4].