煤炭开采行业研究简报：特朗普胜选对化石能源的影响梳理

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of Trump's potential second term on fossil energy policies, suggesting a shift towards deregulation that may benefit the coal, oil, and gas sectors [3]. - It emphasizes the resilience of high-calorific coal prices despite market fluctuations, indicating a positive outlook for coal companies [20]. - The report notes a transition in investment focus from capital expenditure-driven profit growth to prioritizing return on investment and shareholder value [3]. Summary by Sections Oil Market - As of November 8, 2024, Brent crude futures settled at $73.87 per barrel, up $0.77 (+1.05%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $70.38 per barrel, an increase of $0.89 (+1.28%) [2][10]. Natural Gas Market - Northeast Asia's LNG spot price reached $13.55 per million British thermal units, up $0.08 (+0.6%), while the Dutch TTF gas futures settled at €42.40 per megawatt-hour, increasing by €3.35 (+8.6%) [2][14]. Coal Market - The report indicates that Newcastle port coal (6000K) prices are at $143.4 per ton, down $0.6 (-0.4%), while European ARA port coal prices are at $120.2 per ton, up $0.2 (+0.2%) [2][22]. - The report suggests that under Trump's leadership, climate change may take a backseat in energy policy, potentially aiding the coal industry despite ongoing competition from natural gas and renewables [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Qinfa, China Shenhua, and Shanxi Coal, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [6]. - It highlights the significance of share buybacks, particularly noting Pingmei Shenma's announcement of a buyback plan exceeding market expectations, with a budget of 500 to 1,000 million yuan [3][6].