房地产开发行业2024W45：本周新房成交同比+27.4%，增加10万亿地方化债资源

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development industry [1][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant policy shift aimed at increasing local debt resources by 10 trillion yuan, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of real estate-related policies [6][7]. - The macroeconomic environment is supportive, with the government indicating a willingness to increase borrowing capacity and implement more robust fiscal policies to stimulate the real estate market [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming fiscal policies and key meetings, such as the Central Economic Work Conference and the National People's Congress in March [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Increase in Local Debt Resources - A total of 10 trillion yuan in local debt resources will be added through a new approach to debt resolution, which includes replacing hidden debts and increasing special bond allocations [6]. - The plan aims to reduce the burden of hidden debts from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028, significantly easing the debt pressure on local governments [6]. 2. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 6.8% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.32 percentage points [8]. - A total of 105 stocks in the real estate sector rose, while 12 stocks fell, indicating a positive market sentiment [8]. 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - New housing transactions in 30 cities reached 250.4 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% [15]. - Second-hand housing transactions totaled 149.2 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.6% [19]. 4. Credit Bond Issuance - Five credit bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, totaling 5.25 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [1]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks due to expected policy support and improved competitive dynamics within the industry [1]. - Recommended stocks include major A-share companies like Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou, as well as H-share companies like Greentown China and China Overseas Land & Investment [1].