中国宏桥：氧化铝价格上涨增厚利润，产业链一体化成本优势尽显

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The rise in alumina prices is expected to enhance profits, and the cost advantages of the integrated industrial chain are fully demonstrated [6][7][15]. - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for its subsidiary, Shandong Hongqiao New Materials Co., Ltd., with a year-on-year revenue increase of 12.5% and a net profit increase of 141.4% for the first three quarters of 2024 [6][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 149.585 billion, RMB 153.223 billion, and RMB 157.041 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.12, RMB 2.16, and RMB 2.30 [5][8][16]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to improve significantly, reaching 25.7% in 2024, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 17.9% [5][8]. Price and Valuation - The current share price is HK$14.52, with a target price set at HK$18.96, indicating a potential upside of 25% [2][8]. - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8x for 2025, reflecting a favorable valuation compared to peers [8][16]. Market Performance - The stock has shown strong absolute returns of 123.2% over the past 12 months, outperforming the MSCI China index by 106.6% [3][9].