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公用事业行业周报:能源法规完善,消纳责任权重完成较佳
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-10 07:58

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [4]. Core Insights - The improvement of energy regulations supports the development of renewable energy, with the National Grid Research Institute projecting that by 2030, the national installed power capacity will exceed 5 billion kilowatts, with a 7-year CAGR of 8.0%. Renewable energy generation capacity is expected to exceed 2.8 billion kilowatts, with a 7-year CAGR of 15.0% [3][7]. - The formal issuance of the Energy Law in November 2024 emphasizes the priority of developing renewable energy and improving the consumption guarantee mechanism for renewable energy [3][7]. - The assessment of renewable energy consumption responsibility weights for 2023 shows a good completion rate, with national total/non-hydropower renewable energy consumption responsibility weights achieving 32.0%/18.1%, up by 0.4/2.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Events and Industry Views - The report highlights the completion of consumption responsibility weights and the flexibility in target setting across provinces, indicating a rational approach to energy consumption [2][8]. - The Energy Law is seen as a foundational step for sustainable development in renewable energy, filling a gap in the energy regulatory framework [3][7]. 2. Market Review - From November 4 to November 8, 2024, the electricity sector saw a modest increase of 1.38%, while the gas sector rose by 5.59%. The overall market performance was positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 5.50% [14][15]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating, with specific recommendations for various segments: - Hydropower: Focus on high-quality large hydropower projects, recommending companies like Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy [12]. - Thermal Power: Select companies with advantageous locations and attractive dividends, recommending Guodian Power and Shenneng Shares [12]. - Nuclear Power: Highlighting the long-term return potential, recommending China General Nuclear Power and China Nuclear Power [12]. - Renewable Energy: Waiting for policy-driven improvements, recommending Yunnan Energy Investment for its high wind power ratio [12]. - Gas: Focusing on companies with improving free cash flow and dividend value, recommending China Resources Gas [12].