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建材行业2024年三季报总结:度过至暗时刻,挖掘龙头潜力
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-10 07:58

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry [2][3][6] Core Views - The building materials industry has digested pessimistic expectations in the Q3 2024 report, with leading companies showing stronger resilience. The revenue growth of the consumer building materials sector is expected to bottom out, with companies actively improving cash flow and expenses. The cement sector is seeing a seasonal price stabilization strategy, and there is an expectation of substantial improvement in Q4 and year-on-year comparisons for 2025. Glass profitability is accelerating towards a bottom, and cold repairs are gradually starting. The price recovery effects in fiberglass are differentiated, with leading companies outperforming [2][3][6] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Consumer building materials are expected to see revenue growth bottoming out, with companies proactively improving cash flow and expenses. In Q3, the revenue growth rate of the consumer building materials sector showed increased pressure compared to Q2, with sales volume dragging down more significantly. The industry is maintaining a strategy of expanding market share through lower-tier channels and adjusting the structure to increase retail [6][11] 2. Consumer Building Materials - The revenue growth rate in Q3 is under pressure, but the overall gross margin is stabilizing. Companies are controlling expenses, and leading firms are showing significant year-on-year improvements in operating cash flow. The impact of credit impairment losses on profitability remains, but the extent of aging impairment has been sufficiently addressed [6][11][12] 3. Cement Sector - The cement sector is implementing a "price stabilization through increases" strategy, laying a solid foundation for the peak season. The industry is seeing a gradual start to seasonal price increases, with a notable improvement in cooperation among companies. The release of the capacity replacement implementation plan is expected to set a tone for limiting overproduction, which could improve supply-demand dynamics [7][8] 4. Glass and Fiberglass - Glass profitability is accelerating towards a bottom, with high inventory leading to price declines. The industry is stabilizing prices through cold repairs and production cuts. In fiberglass, leading companies are significantly outperforming the industry in both volume and profit due to their differentiated product offerings and pricing power [8][9] 5. Recommended Companies - Recommended leading companies in the consumer building materials sector include Dongfang Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and Tubao. In the cement sector, recommended companies are Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement. For glass and fiberglass, recommended companies include China Jushi, Xinyi Glass, Qibin Group, and Fuyao Glass [3][9][10]