航空供给再探讨：供需反转在即？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply constraints in the aviation industry are expected to last at least until 2027, with a supply-demand reversal anticipated in 2025 [4] - The average compound growth rate of aircraft supply in China's civil aviation industry from 2024 to 2026 is projected to decline to 2.5% due to upstream capacity bottlenecks [4] - Domestic airlines have significantly increased their market share in international routes, which is expected to enhance revenue levels [5] - The demand-supply relationship has improved, with demand in July-August 2024 exceeding the same period in 2019 [5] - The aviation industry is expected to see a supply-demand turning point in 2025, with supply-demand differences projected at +3.2% and +4.4% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [6] Summary by Sections Supply Constraints - Upstream delivery capabilities are limited, with engine manufacturers and aircraft manufacturers facing production bottlenecks [4] - The production capacity of Boeing and Airbus has only recovered to 48% and 77% respectively, with Airbus not expected to fully recover until 2027 [4][26][32] - The domestic aircraft C919 and ARJ have been delivered, but their utilization rates are low, limiting their impact on actual supply [4] Demand Dynamics - Domestic airlines' market share in international flights has risen to 72.2% in the first half of 2024, up from 52.7% in 2019 [5] - The overall demand in civil aviation has reached a weak balance, with July-August 2024 demand surpassing the same period in 2019 [5][55] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in specific airlines such as Huaxia, Spring Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines [6] Aircraft Fleet Changes - The proportion of wide-body aircraft is decreasing while the share of domestic aircraft is increasing [12] - The net increase in domestic aircraft is expected to be significant, but the contribution to effective supply is limited due to lower seat counts and utilization rates [15][48] Engine Supply Issues - The PW1100G engine recall will affect the supply of A320neo aircraft, with an estimated 350 aircraft grounded for maintenance [19][21] - GE's commercial engine production has only recovered to 68% of 2019 levels, impacting overall aircraft supply [21][23] Market Trends - The rental market for aircraft is experiencing high demand, with rental rates exceeding those of 2019 [39][40] - The second-hand aircraft market is also active, with high utilization rates and rental prices [39][40]