宏观利率图表204：美国大选落地，国内积极化债

Domestic Economic Analysis - China's central bank maintains a supportive monetary policy stance, with foreign exchange reserves at $3,261 billion as of October[2] - The National People's Congress approved an increase of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits to replace hidden debts, with a cumulative potential to replace 4 trillion yuan over five years[2] - The October Caixin Services PMI rose to 52, marking a three-month high, while exports grew by 12.7% year-on-year, and imports fell by 2.3%[2] Overseas Economic Analysis - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, removing confidence in reaching 2% inflation[3] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November reached 73, the highest since April, while the ISM Services PMI for October hit 56, a peak since July 2022[3] - The Eurozone's October Manufacturing PMI was revised to 46.0, and the Services PMI to 51.6, indicating slight improvements[3] Strategic Recommendations - Global strategy suggests buying the U.S. dollar (DXY) and selling U.S. Treasuries (TU)[4] - Domestic strategy recommends a strategic steepening of the yield curve[4] Risk Factors - Potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts and debt risks in Europe and the U.S.[5]