美国经济：美联储如期降息

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the target policy rate by 25 basis points from 5%-5.25% to 4.5%-4.75%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The CME tool indicated a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut prior to the meeting[2] - Future rate cuts may be gradual, with a potential further reduction of 75 basis points next year, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4% by year-end[4] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement removed confidence in reaching the 2% inflation target, indicating increased uncertainty about the timeline[2] - Core inflation remains high, and the labor market is slowly cooling, suggesting that inflation control efforts are ongoing[3] - Economic data has exceeded expectations recently, but inflation may see a slight rebound in the coming months[4] Political Considerations - Powell emphasized that the outcome of the presidential election will not influence Fed decisions, maintaining the independence and credibility of the Fed[3] - Concerns about the potential impact of Trump's policies on inflation and economic growth have emerged, as tax cuts and tariffs may stimulate demand and raise prices[4]