当前经济与政策思考：鲍威尔捍卫美联储独立性

Group 1 - The report highlights significant political developments in the US, indicating a strong possibility of the Republican Party sweeping the elections, with a notable lead in the House of Representatives and a favorable outlook for Trump's policies [6][7]. - The Federal Reserve has slowed its rate cuts to 25 basis points, with the target range for the federal funds rate now at 4.5% to 4.75%. Powell's statements reflect a middle-ground approach, emphasizing the independence of the Fed from political influences [7][9][10]. - In Europe, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI remains low, indicating ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity, while the UK central bank has also cut rates as inflation pressures begin to ease [12][13]. Group 2 - US high-frequency indicators show a generally healthy economic status, with a slight cooling in employment and a rise in retail growth, although rising interest rates are suppressing housing demand [17][21]. - Global asset performance has shown a divergence following the elections and Fed rate cuts, with US equities rising and bond yields fluctuating, reflecting increased market risk appetite [28][29]. - Japan's labor market shows strong wage growth, with a 2.6% year-on-year increase in basic wages, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures, which may lead to further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [15][16].