Inflation Data Overview - In October, the CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year, down from 0.4% in September, and below the market expectation of 0.4%[1] - The core CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, compared to 0.1% in the previous month[1] - The PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, widening from a decline of 2.8% in September[1] Food and Service Prices - Food prices grew by 2.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Service prices increased by 0.4% year-on-year, up by 0.2 percentage points from September, driven mainly by "education, culture, and entertainment" and "other goods and services" categories[2] Industrial Consumer Prices - The year-on-year growth rate of industrial consumer prices was -0.9%, worsening from -0.7% in the previous month[5] - The decline in industrial prices is attributed to falling international crude oil prices since April, which have remained below historical levels since August[5] Core CPI and Economic Outlook - Excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, ending its downward trend[5] - The recovery in core CPI may not indicate a rebound in internal demand, as the tourism sector's recovery contributed significantly to this increase[5] Future Projections - CPI is expected to rise moderately by the end of the year, supported by seasonal consumption increases and potential price stabilization in pork[7] - The PPI decline is anticipated to narrow in the fourth quarter due to domestic consumption and export demand[8]
10月通胀数据点评:四季度通胀怎么看?
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-11-10 09:07