煤炭行业周报：政策预期仍强，重指数轻个股

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - Current policy expectations remain strong, with the coal index likely to outperform individual coal stocks due to the focus on index core dividend leaders and cyclical elasticity [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core dividend leaders such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as recommending integrated coal and power companies like Xinji Energy [4]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Data Tracking - As of November 8, 2024, the price of thermal coal at Huanghua Port for Q5500 grade is 857 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton (-0.1%) from the previous week [7]. - The overall daily consumption remains stable, with expectations for an increase as the northern region enters the heating season starting November 15 [4]. - The report anticipates that the upward price risk for coal will be greater than the downward risk as the year-end approaches, with a price floor established above 850 CNY/ton [4]. Coking Coal Data Tracking - Coking coal prices have decreased, with the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port for Shanxi production at 1640 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY/ton (-5.7%) [31]. - The report notes that the average daily iron and steel production has decreased slightly, but demand for coking coal remains supported [4]. - The report highlights that the cost of Shanxi-produced coking coal is now lower than that of imported Australian hard coking coal by 180 CNY/ton [37]. Inventory and Market Trends - As of November 9, 2024, the inventory at Qinhuangdao Port is 6.59 million tons, an increase of 610,000 tons (10.2%) from the previous week [21]. - The report indicates that the overall inventory levels at major northern and southern ports have also increased, reflecting a broader trend in the market [4]. - The report notes that the annual long-term contract price for thermal coal remains stable at 699 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous month [24].