钢铁行业周报：10万亿化债方案落地，未来需求有望增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1]. Core Views - The implementation of a 10 trillion yuan debt resolution plan is expected to stimulate future demand for steel, particularly in local infrastructure projects [1][3]. - The steel industry is currently experiencing a stable operation with minor fluctuations in supply and demand, although a weak demand trend is anticipated as the industry enters the off-season [1][3]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery among leading steel companies, driven by improved local government finances and increased infrastructure investment [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - As of November 8, 2024, the prices for five major steel products are as follows: rebar at 3603 yuan/ton, wire rod at 3879 yuan/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3565 yuan/ton, cold-rolled coil at 4163 yuan/ton, and medium plate at 3622 yuan/ton, with weekly changes of -0.52%, -0.28%, +0.36%, +0.63%, and +0.36% respectively [1][13]. - Total production for the week was 8.6149 million tons, a decrease of 57,900 tons week-on-week [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3406 million tons, down 14,100 tons from the previous week [1]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is reported at 87.87%, with a slight decrease of 0.53 percentage points from the previous week [1][16]. - Electric arc furnace utilization is at 52.23%, down 2.12 percentage points week-on-week [1][16]. (b) Consumption of Major Steel Products - Total consumption of the five major steel products was 8.776 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.58% [1][24]. - Specific changes in apparent consumption include rebar at -5.02%, wire rod at -3.49%, hot-rolled coil at +0.10%, cold-rolled coil at +5.75%, and medium plate at -2.63% [1]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory decreased by 161,000 tons week-on-week, with social inventory down by 80,200 tons to 8.1992 million tons and steel mill inventory down by 80,800 tons to 3.9887 million tons [1][28]. - The report indicates that while total inventory is declining, the rate of decrease is slowing [1]. (d) Profitability - The average molten iron cost for 114 steel mills is reported at 2607 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week [1]. - As of November 8, the gross profit per ton for various steel products is as follows: rebar at -107 yuan/ton, hot-rolled coil at -137 yuan/ton, and cold-rolled coil at +112 yuan/ton [1][32]. 3. Stock Market Perspective - The steel index closed at 2281.13 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.01%, while the overall A-share index rose by 7.11% [2]. - The overall price-to-book ratio for the steel sector is 1.02, indicating a valuation at the 60.64% percentile over the past five years [2]. 4. Future Focus Areas - The report emphasizes the importance of leading steel companies' valuation recovery, supported by the recent debt resolution policy and anticipated improvements in local government finances [3]. - The potential for increased demand from pipeline companies due to local debt resolution is also highlighted, with specific companies recommended for investment [3].