矿山机械系列报告（一）：迎接新一轮资本开支周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mining machinery sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The mining machinery industry is essential for upstream resource development, with a global market size of approximately $75.05 billion in 2021, where open-pit mining equipment, underground mining machinery, crushing, grinding, and screening equipment, and mineral processing machinery accounted for 41.4%, 31.4%, 12.2%, and 7.4% respectively [1][18]. - There is a significant investment gap in global mining, particularly in copper supply, with forecasts indicating a shortfall of over 5 million tons by 2027 and 3.15 million tons by 2030 if new capital investments are not made [2][36]. - The Chinese mining machinery sector is poised for growth, driven by increased exploration budgets and overseas investments by Chinese mining companies, leading to a 23.8% year-on-year increase in mining machinery exports in 2023 [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Mining Machinery: Essential for Upstream Resource Development - The global mining machinery market was valued at approximately $75.05 billion in 2021, with significant contributions from various equipment types [1][18]. - The industry is categorized into three tiers: high-end foreign brands, domestic mid-to-high-end brands, and low-end domestic brands [1][22]. 2. Global Mining Investment Gap - The transition to carbon neutrality and electrification is creating a hard supply gap for copper, necessitating substantial capital investments [2][34]. - The rising mining costs due to declining ore grades and increased stripping ratios are pushing the need for higher capital expenditures, estimated at $65 billion by 2030 for primary mines [2][28]. 3. Opportunities for Chinese Mining Machinery - The global exploration budget has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9% from 2017 to 2023, with a notable 12% increase in copper exploration budgets in 2023 [3][28]. - The rapid growth of Chinese mining companies' overseas investments is facilitating the export of domestic mining machinery [3][10]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines of investment: 1. Companies benefiting from increased consumption of spare parts due to declining copper grades, recommending Nepean Mining Machinery and suggesting attention to New Sharp Co [10]. 2. Companies likely to see accelerated capital expenditures due to copper supply shortages, recommending Yunjigroup, Shantui, and CITIC Heavy Industries, with a suggestion to pay attention to Tongli Co [10].