10月贸易数据分析：出口回归上行但价格仍然承压

Export Data - In October, China's export value increased by 12.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in the previous month, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.1% from January to October[2] - October imports decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared to a 0.3% increase in the previous month, resulting in a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.7% from January to October[2] - The trade surplus in October was $95.72 billion, an increase from $81.71 billion in the previous month[2] Export Trends - The export growth rate rebounded in October after a temporary decline in September, with cumulative year-on-year growth rising to 5.1% for January to October[3] - The export price index as of September was 95.1, remaining below 100, indicating ongoing price pressure on exports[3] Product Structure - From January to October, the export value of electromechanical products increased by 6.9%, accounting for 59.4% of total exports, while high-tech products saw a 4.7% increase, making up 24.6% of total exports[4] - Key products included automobiles (18.6% increase), integrated circuits (19.6% increase), and household appliances (14.5% increase) year-on-year[4] Regional Export Performance - In October, exports to major economies showed recovery, with exports to the US increasing by 8.1% and to the EU by 12.72% year-on-year[5] - Exports to ASEAN countries rose by 15.79%, with significant increases to Singapore (6.65%), Thailand (16.89%), Vietnam (15.59%), and Malaysia (24.68%) year-on-year[5] Investment Outlook - The global demand is expected to recover, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, which may enhance global economic activity[6] - Key indicators to monitor include the recovery of manufacturing PMI in major economies and the restoration of import and export growth rates[6]