策略周观点：流动性牛市，但可能比14-15年慢

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market is likely entering a liquidity-driven bull market, but the speed of this bull market may not match the rapid pace seen in 2014-2015 due to slower inflow of retail investor funds [5][14]. - The last liquidity-driven bull market occurred in 2014-2015, characterized by a lack of macroeconomic recovery and declining ROE (TTM) across most industries, resulting in a bull market level that exceeded those driven by profit recovery in 2009-2010, 2016-2017, and 2019-2021 [6][8]. - Retail investor funds have a significantly greater impact on bull and bear markets compared to institutional funds, as evidenced by the substantial inflows during the bull markets of 2014-2015 and 2019-2021, which reached over one trillion for consecutive years [8][9]. Group 2 - Recent data shows that the inflow of retail funds is currently slower than during the 2014-2015 bull market, with recent increases in financing balances and account openings not matching the rapid inflow seen in the previous bull market [9][14]. - The report highlights a notable increase in the number of personal investor accounts in September and October, nearing the highs of 2015, but a decline in search interest for stock account openings was observed in late October [11][12]. - The current trend shows a significant increase in ETF subscriptions, with ETF sizes now comparable to actively managed products, although the growth rate of ETFs has not matched that of actively managed equity products in 2020 [13][14]. Group 3 - The report suggests a tactical allocation strategy prioritizing financials and real estate, followed by media, internet, and consumer electronics, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy changes and growth potential [15]. - The report notes that the A-share market has seen significant index increases, particularly in the ChiNext Index and related sectors, indicating a strong performance in technology and defense industries [16][19]. - The report also mentions that the global market has shown mixed performance, with significant gains in major indices like the Shanghai Composite and S&P 500, while commodity markets have experienced varied results [17][21].