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煤炭行业周报:新增6万亿债务限额用于化债,关注旺季日耗恢复情况
Haitong Securities·2024-11-10 12:16

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the resilience of coal demand, which continues to exceed expectations, supported by strong electricity demand in China and emerging markets [1][3] - The report anticipates a slight increase in coal demand due to robust domestic electricity needs and strong growth in Southeast Asia [1][3] - The report emphasizes the impact of favorable fiscal policies and the potential for unexpected domestic demand growth [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The coal sector is expected to maintain stable performance with a projected net profit increase of 4% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The report notes that coal prices are likely to remain stable despite short-term fluctuations, with a focus on seasonal demand [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of November 8, coal consumption at power plants has started to increase, with average daily consumption at 509 thousand tons, reflecting a 3.2% year-on-year increase [1] - The report indicates that coal imports in October reached 46.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [1] - The report also mentions that global coal consumption is expected to gradually decline over the next two years, primarily due to decreased demand in China, Europe, and the United States [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, and Datong Coal Mine Group, which are expected to benefit from coal capacity reserve policies and safety improvements [1] - It also suggests that the coal price may not decline significantly in the off-season, indicating strong stability in the performance of the thermal coal sector [1]