煤炭行业深度研究：疆煤聚焦“就地转化”，外运补充内陆供给

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this sector [2][3]. Core Insights - Xinjiang's coal resources are abundant, with significant growth potential in demand. The region's strategic importance will increase as central and eastern coal-producing areas face production declines [3][9]. - The report highlights that Xinjiang's coal production has rapidly increased from 213 million tons in 2018 to 457 million tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% [3][16]. - By 2030, Xinjiang's coal production is expected to exceed 700 million tons, with external transport demand projected at 250 million tons per year, alongside significant local consumption [9][25]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, and Pingmei Shenma Energy [3][9]. Xinjiang's Strategic Role - Xinjiang is positioned as a key energy resource base in China, holding approximately 40% of the nation's coal resources, 20% of natural gas, and 17% of crude oil [14][15]. - The region's coal production capacity is expected to continue growing, supported by national policies aimed at enhancing energy security [15][16]. Economic Competitiveness of Xinjiang Coal - The report concludes that under current stable price assumptions, transporting Xinjiang coal to central and eastern ports is not economically viable due to rising costs associated with distance and transportation [8][9]. - The economic advantages of transporting Xinjiang coal to Gansu and other nearby regions are highlighted, while further transport to other areas remains less favorable [8][9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Xinjiang coal will primarily focus on local conversion, with external transport serving as a supplementary supply to inland markets [9][25]. - By 2030, the overall supply-demand balance for Xinjiang coal is expected to remain stable, with production and demand aligning closely [9][25].