基础化工行业周报：十万亿元化债政策落地，看好顺周期与内需复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The implementation of a 10 trillion yuan debt resolution policy is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the chemical industry, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [26]. - The recent policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting demand for chemical products are anticipated to alleviate previous market concerns and enhance economic confidence [26]. - The report suggests that the chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by supply-side reforms and improved domestic supply conditions [26]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The debt resolution policy signifies a shift from emergency measures to proactive management of hidden debts, with a goal to reduce the total hidden debt to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028 [4][36]. - The policy is expected to save approximately 600 billion yuan in interest payments over five years, allowing local governments to focus on infrastructure and economic growth [4][36]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Longbai Group, and Yuxing Energy, as well as in the civil explosives sector [4][36]. 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 5.6% during the week of November 4-8, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.1% but underperforming the ChiNext Index by 3.8% [2][31]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 1.7%, lagging behind both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [2][31]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 426 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 399 stocks rose, with the top gainers including Lanfeng Biochemical (+39.4%) and Runpu Food (+39.1%) [33][34]. - The report notes significant declines in stocks such as Hengtian Hailong (-13.7%) and Chuanfa Longmang (-10.3%) [33][34]. 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report discusses the approval of a resolution to increase local government debt limits for replacing hidden debts, which is expected to support economic stability [3][35]. - The debt resolution policy is seen as a critical step in addressing fiscal challenges and enhancing the quality of financial assets, which will benefit the real economy [4][36]. 5. Product Price and Price Spread Analysis - The report provides insights into the price changes of various chemical products, highlighting significant increases in prices for liquid gas (+230.0%) and liquid hydrogen (+25.0%) [5]. - Conversely, products like R143a and zinc nitrate experienced notable price declines [5]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core assets that have entered a long-term value zone, suggesting that chemical blue-chip stocks may see a recovery in valuation and profitability [6]. - It also highlights sectors with supply constraints that are likely to experience price elasticity, such as vitamins and refrigerants [6][27].