商社行业周报：大选落地后关税担忧升级，出口链影响几何？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Viewpoints - Current market concerns for cross-border e-commerce (retail) companies focus on tightening small package exemption policies and potential increases in destination country tariffs. The report suggests that small sellers relying on direct mail models will face higher compliance costs and complex customs processes, which may compress their profit margins [3][4]. - The report highlights that the importance of overseas warehousing will increase as tax advantages of direct mail diminish, particularly benefiting larger cross-border sellers with established overseas supply chains [3]. - The report recommends focusing on brands with lower dependency on the North American market and those with established overseas warehousing, such as Miniso, Zhiou Technology, Anker Innovations, and Saiwei Times [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes that the U.S. election results have heightened tariff concerns, particularly with the re-election of Trump, who has indicated potential tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports and up to 60% on goods from China [2]. Trade Policy Developments - The report outlines the historical context of the small package exemption policy in the U.S., which has evolved from a $200 limit to $800 in 2015, significantly benefiting platforms like Temu and Shein. Recent moves by the Biden administration indicate a tightening of these exemptions [4][11]. Company Announcements - Key company announcements include: - Jiajiashuo plans to distribute cash dividends of 1.10 yuan per 10 shares [6]. - Kid King completed the repurchase and cancellation of restricted stock involving 1.8274 million shares [6]. - Dazhi shares successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at an issue price of 15.6 HKD per share [6]. Industry News - Recent industry developments include the opening of new supermarket locations and the participation of brands like Pop Mart in major trade expos, indicating ongoing consumer engagement and market activity [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a more optimistic outlook for the consumer sector, emphasizing four key areas: 1. Beauty: Domestic brands are expected to perform well during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with companies like Juzhibio, Aimeirong, and Polaia recommended for investment [9]. 2. Overseas Expansion: The report anticipates a boost in overseas sales due to favorable conditions, recommending companies like Pop Mart and Miniso [9]. 3. Dining: The dining sector is expected to recover gradually, with a focus on leading companies like Haidilao and Yum China [15]. 4. Travel: The report notes a significant increase in travel during the National Day holiday, suggesting a recovery in the travel sector with companies like Trip.com and Jinjiang Hotels highlighted [15].