Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [6]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from improving domestic demand, particularly in the liquor segment, which has seen a 6.85% increase this week. The sector is currently at a fundamental bottom, with third-quarter revenue declines aiding inventory digestion. Future price increases are anticipated as policy effects take time to materialize [6][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The liquor sector is highlighted for its recovery potential due to improving domestic demand expectations. The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, among others [6][13]. 2. Market Review - The food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.78 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 9.35% from November 4 to November 8. All sub-sectors within food and beverage showed positive growth, with health products leading at +11.69% [21][22]. 3. Key Data Tracking - Liquor Prices: As of November 8, the price of Feitian Moutai (original box) was 2500 CNY, down 1.19% from November 1. The overall liquor production in September 2024 decreased by 9.90% year-on-year [30]. - Beer Production: In September 2024, beer production from large enterprises increased by 1.4% year-on-year to 2.904 million kiloliters [34]. - Dairy Products: The average price of fresh milk was 3.13 CNY/kg as of October 31, remaining stable compared to the previous week [36]. 4. Company Recommendations - Liquor: Recommended companies include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. - Beer: Focus on Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, with a recommendation to pay attention to China Resources Beer. - Soft Drinks: Key companies include Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring. - Condiments: Highlight companies with improvement potential such as Haitian Flavoring and Zhongju Gaoxin. - Dairy: Recommendations include Yili and Mengniu. - Restaurant Supply Chain: Emphasis on resilient leading companies and those with potential for performance recovery, such as Anjuke Food and Qianwei Central Kitchen [19][8].
食品饮料行业周报:化债政策落地,看好板块趋势性向上
Tebon Securities·2024-11-10 14:23