银行业周报：地方化债提速，央行呵护息差

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent debt reduction policies will alleviate the financial burden on local governments, while the central bank's measures are aimed at protecting bank interest margins amidst competitive pressures [1][3]. - It emphasizes the expected positive impact of fiscal and monetary policies on economic confidence and growth, particularly in the financial sector [3][12]. Market Review - From November 4 to November 10, the major indices saw significant increases: the CSI 300 rose by 5.50%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.51%, and the ChiNext Index by 9.32% [1]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market reached 77,757.85 billion, an increase of 18.28% compared to the previous week [1]. - The banking sector index increased by 1.37% during the same period, with notable gains from Chongqing Bank (+7.75%) and Qingnong Bank (+6.87%) [1]. Policy Developments - On November 8, the National People's Congress approved a significant debt replacement initiative, allowing for an increase of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits to replace hidden debts [1][13]. - The report outlines that this policy will reduce the total hidden debt burden from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028, significantly easing financial pressures on local governments [1][13]. Banking Sector Performance - The report notes that the central bank's recent monetary policy report indicates a commitment to maintaining interest margins for banks while addressing excessive competition in loan pricing [1][10]. - It also mentions that the issuance of new government bonds and local government bonds has been substantial, with new local government bonds issued amounting to 404.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,158.35 billion yuan from the previous week [1][19]. Company-Specific Analysis - The report provides detailed forecasts for key banks, including: - Ningbo Bank: Expected net profit growth of 5.9% in 2024, with a target price of 29.96 yuan based on a PB of 0.90X [4][18]. - Jiangsu Bank: Projected net profit growth of 10.2% in 2024, with a target price of 10.22 yuan based on a PB of 0.72X [4][18]. - Changshu Bank: Anticipated net profit growth of 17.2% in 2024, with a target price of 8.00 yuan based on a PB of 0.75X [4][18]. - Ruifeng Bank: Expected to maintain over 10% growth in annual performance, with a target price of 6.73 yuan based on a PB of 0.67X [4][18].