航空行业跟踪报告：财政发力->航空表现如何传导？2008-10行情复盘启示

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aviation industry, highlighting its cyclical nature and potential for strong price elasticity once demand picks up [1]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is sensitive to fiscal policies, with a strong rebound in demand following government stimulus measures. The domestic passenger volume growth was 4.7% in 2008, and it surged to 22.2% and 14.8% in 2009 and 2010 respectively [11][20]. - The supply-demand gap has widened due to a strong rebound in demand and a slowdown in supply growth, leading to an increase in industry passenger load factors above 80% and a 13.5% rise in domestic ticket prices compared to 2009 [16][20]. - The aviation sector has demonstrated significant stock performance, with the aviation transportation index rising 319% from November 2008 to October 2010, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose approximately 110% during the same period [21][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Impact on Aviation Demand - The Chinese government's economic stimulus plan initiated in 2008 significantly impacted aviation demand, with infrastructure investment seeing a substantial increase [5][7]. - The rebound in macroeconomic indicators, such as manufacturing PMI and industrial output, began to show positive growth by early 2009, which correlated with increased aviation demand [9][10]. 2. Demand to Profitability Transmission - The demand rebound has led to a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with a notable increase in passenger load factors and ticket prices, contributing to profitability improvements for airlines [16][20]. - The industry saw a turnaround in profitability in 2009, with major airlines reporting significant net profits in 2010, driven by improved demand and favorable cost conditions [20]. 3. Stock Performance - The aviation sector's stock performance has been characterized by two distinct phases of excess returns, particularly during the early stages of fiscal stimulus and later as the overall economy began to recover [22][24]. - The report indicates that the aviation transportation index consistently outperformed the broader market, reflecting the sector's early-cycle characteristics and strong earnings elasticity [22][25]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Specific airlines are highlighted for their potential benefits from the current market conditions: - Huaxia Airlines is expected to benefit from debt reduction and improved operational metrics [27][29]. - 吉祥航空 (Jixiang Airlines) is positioned for growth with its international routes and efficient operations [31][32]. - 春秋航空 (Spring Airlines) is noted for its low-cost competitive advantage [27]. - 中国国航 (Air China) is recommended for monitoring due to its strong performance in the third quarter [27].