轻工制造行业专题研究：2024Q3出口综述：景气延续，盈利阶段承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light manufacturing industry [1] Core Insights - The light manufacturing sector is experiencing stable demand and inventory levels, with an anticipated active restocking cycle in 2025 due to improved end-user confidence from interest rate cuts [2][11] - Export enterprises in the sector achieved a revenue of 20.71 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8% [3] - Cross-border e-commerce companies continue to show strong growth, with several firms reporting significant year-on-year revenue increases [4][14] - Profitability in the sector is under pressure due to currency fluctuations and high shipping costs, but there are signs of potential recovery in Q4 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Export Performance - The U.S. furniture retail and wholesale inventory turnover ratios are at historical averages, indicating stable demand and cautious inventory management [2][11] - New home sales in the U.S. increased by 6.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024, while existing home sales decreased by 3.3% [11] OEM Sector - The OEM sector shows structural growth, with companies like Yongyi and Jiangxin Home achieving revenue growth of 39% and 26% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Several companies are benefiting from global supply chain strategies and new sales channels, contributing to their revenue increases [3] Cross-Border E-commerce - Companies such as Henglin and Zhiou Technology reported year-on-year revenue growth of 41% and 35%, respectively, driven by market expansion and supply chain optimization [4][14] - The upcoming Q4 is expected to be a peak season for cross-border e-commerce, with significant promotional events scheduled [4] Profitability Analysis - The average gross margin for export enterprises in Q3 2024 was 31.3%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to currency appreciation and shipping cost pressures [5] - Some companies, like Jiangxin Home, managed to increase their gross margins despite the overall decline in the sector [5] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks such as Yongyi, Jiangxin Home, and Henglin, which are expected to benefit from valuation shifts in Q4 2024 [7]